{
  "version": 1,
  "generatedAt": "2026-05-08T15:59:04.113Z",
  "title": "Gavekal Regime",
  "subtitle": "Four-quadrant portfolio construction using growth and inflation market ratios.",
  "sourceNote": "Public Yahoo Finance monthly ETF proxy data. GLD / IEF approximates Gold / 10Y Treasuries; SPY / USO approximates S&P 500 / Oil. The 7-year moving-average rule uses the latest 84 monthly ratio observations.",
  "latestMonth": "2026-05-08",
  "ratios": [
    {
      "key": "inflation",
      "name": "Gold / 10Y Treasuries",
      "proxy": "GLD / IEF",
      "signal": "Inflation axis",
      "above": "Inflationary pressure / monetary distrust",
      "below": "Deflationary pressure / monetary confidence",
      "description": "Compares hard money against Treasury duration using a 7-year moving average.",
      "currentValue": 4.551371912915698,
      "movingAverage": 2.101752773001136,
      "displayCurrentValue": "4.55x",
      "displayMovingAverage": "2.10x",
      "latestMonth": "2026-05-08",
      "latestMonthDisplay": "May 2026",
      "isAboveMa": true,
      "directionLabel": "Above its 7-year moving average",
      "meaning": "Inflationary pressure / monetary distrust",
      "chart": {
        "ratioPolyline": "0.0,187.0 8.4,186.1 16.8,187.1 25.2,186.8 33.6,187.4 42.0,189.3 50.4,190.0 58.8,187.8 67.2,186.6 75.6,186.8 84.0,186.4 92.4,186.8 100.8,187.5 109.2,186.5 117.6,185.2 126.1,186.1 134.5,186.3 142.9,185.9 151.3,184.8 159.7,182.2 168.1,182.7 176.5,182.9 184.9,182.6 193.3,183.6 201.7,185.4 210.1,186.1 218.5,187.5 226.9,187.2 235.3,186.0 243.7,186.3 252.1,185.2 260.5,184.1 268.9,184.0 277.3,186.0 285.7,185.9 294.1,186.4 302.5,183.2 310.9,183.1 319.3,181.2 327.7,182.2 336.1,180.9 344.5,182.2 352.9,179.7 361.3,179.2 369.7,181.0 378.2,182.9 386.6,179.3 395.0,178.1 403.4,176.5 411.8,170.9 420.2,170.5 428.6,173.2 437.0,172.7 445.4,176.1 453.8,171.9 462.2,173.2 470.6,175.5 479.0,174.8 487.4,173.2 495.8,168.9 504.2,174.0 512.6,173.7 521.0,173.4 529.4,174.4 537.8,173.2 546.2,174.2 554.6,171.9 563.0,171.6 571.4,167.6 579.8,163.9 588.2,162.2 596.6,164.9 605.0,165.3 613.4,168.8 621.8,168.1 630.3,166.7 638.7,166.8 647.1,163.6 655.5,160.2 663.9,158.6 672.3,160.1 680.7,157.0 689.1,156.8 697.5,156.5 705.9,157.1 714.3,154.7 722.7,154.9 731.1,156.0 739.5,148.5 747.9,149.9 756.3,151.4 764.7,152.7 773.1,150.4 781.5,143.6 789.9,137.7 798.3,137.6 806.7,138.6 815.1,136.0 823.5,135.0 831.9,131.1 840.3,122.7 848.7,126.9 857.1,125.3 865.5,118.7 873.9,119.4 882.4,108.8 890.8,103.0 899.2,101.0 907.6,102.1 916.0,101.7 924.4,97.0 932.8,81.5 941.2,76.7 949.6,69.4 958.0,63.5 966.4,42.3 974.8,30.0 983.2,47.6 991.6,49.6 1000.0,45.8",
        "movingAveragePolyline": "697.5,177.8 705.9,177.5 714.3,177.1 722.7,176.7 731.1,176.4 739.5,175.9 747.9,175.4 756.3,175.0 764.7,174.5 773.1,174.1 781.5,173.6 789.9,173.0 798.3,172.4 806.7,171.9 815.1,171.3 823.5,170.7 831.9,170.0 840.3,169.2 848.7,168.5 857.1,167.8 865.5,167.1 873.9,166.3 882.4,165.4 890.8,164.5 899.2,163.5 907.6,162.5 916.0,161.5 924.4,160.4 932.8,159.2 941.2,157.9 949.6,156.5 958.0,155.0 966.4,153.4 974.8,151.5 983.2,149.9 991.6,148.2 1000.0,146.6",
        "minDisplay": "1.05x",
        "maxDisplay": "4.94x",
        "startDisplay": "Jun 2016",
        "endDisplay": "May 2026"
      }
    },
    {
      "key": "growth",
      "name": "S&P 500 / Oil",
      "proxy": "SPY / USO",
      "signal": "Boom/bust axis",
      "above": "Boom / productive capital beating energy scarcity",
      "below": "Bust / oil and input costs pressuring equities",
      "description": "Compares productive financial assets against a core real-economy input cost.",
      "currentValue": 5.454430595389851,
      "movingAverage": 7.393499830059204,
      "displayCurrentValue": "5.45x",
      "displayMovingAverage": "7.39x",
      "latestMonth": "2026-05-08",
      "latestMonthDisplay": "May 2026",
      "isAboveMa": false,
      "directionLabel": "Below its 7-year moving average",
      "meaning": "Bust / oil and input costs pressuring equities",
      "chart": {
        "ratioPolyline": "0.0,189.9 8.4,183.5 16.8,185.4 25.2,187.3 33.6,186.6 42.0,186.7 50.4,188.4 58.8,186.8 67.2,185.9 75.6,183.6 84.0,181.9 92.4,180.4 100.8,178.5 109.2,180.7 117.6,178.1 126.1,180.6 134.5,181.5 142.9,182.1 151.3,183.5 159.7,184.3 168.1,183.9 176.5,186.8 184.9,188.2 193.3,186.9 201.7,190.0 210.1,187.4 218.5,187.3 226.9,188.9 235.3,187.5 243.7,178.1 252.1,177.9 260.5,181.1 268.9,181.8 277.3,182.9 285.7,183.6 294.1,179.5 302.5,180.2 310.9,179.7 319.3,178.4 327.7,177.4 336.1,176.4 344.5,176.0 352.9,179.0 361.3,172.0 369.7,169.4 378.2,123.2 386.6,30.0 395.0,72.5 403.4,82.0 411.8,79.0 420.2,76.6 428.6,71.5 437.0,57.9 445.4,73.3 453.8,77.8 462.2,87.8 470.6,104.0 479.0,96.9 487.4,98.6 495.8,103.5 504.2,111.7 512.6,110.8 521.0,101.6 529.4,116.9 537.8,118.5 546.2,100.3 554.6,109.8 563.0,128.8 571.4,137.8 579.8,142.5 588.2,151.8 596.6,158.1 605.0,159.8 613.4,152.6 621.8,151.0 630.3,150.2 638.7,151.1 647.1,146.1 655.5,150.4 663.9,145.3 672.3,144.9 680.7,141.7 689.1,141.7 697.5,132.6 705.9,131.6 714.3,140.5 722.7,143.7 731.1,152.5 739.5,148.9 747.9,137.4 756.3,129.7 764.7,133.7 773.1,132.2 781.5,135.7 789.9,138.7 798.3,130.7 806.7,133.3 815.1,130.2 823.5,124.1 831.9,116.4 840.3,121.6 848.7,113.8 857.1,121.9 865.5,122.5 873.9,120.2 882.4,128.4 890.8,110.0 899.2,109.3 907.6,113.4 916.0,119.6 924.4,111.3 932.8,106.2 941.2,101.6 949.6,99.0 958.0,95.9 966.4,110.3 974.8,114.3 983.2,154.7 991.6,157.4 1000.0,150.4",
        "movingAveragePolyline": "697.5,151.3 705.9,150.6 714.3,150.1 722.7,149.6 731.1,149.2 739.5,148.7 747.9,148.1 756.3,147.4 764.7,146.8 773.1,146.1 781.5,145.6 789.9,145.1 798.3,144.5 806.7,143.9 815.1,143.3 823.5,142.7 831.9,141.9 840.3,141.2 848.7,140.4 857.1,139.7 865.5,138.9 873.9,138.2 882.4,137.5 890.8,136.5 899.2,135.6 907.6,134.7 916.0,133.9 924.4,133.0 932.8,132.0 941.2,131.0 949.6,130.0 958.0,129.1 966.4,128.2 974.8,127.4 983.2,127.1 991.6,126.8 1000.0,126.4",
        "minDisplay": "2.25x",
        "maxDisplay": "15.19x",
        "startDisplay": "Jun 2016",
        "endDisplay": "May 2026"
      }
    }
  ],
  "currentQuadrant": {
    "name": "Inflationary Bust",
    "inflationSignal": "Gold/Treasuries above 7-year MA",
    "growthSignal": "S&P/Oil below 7-year MA",
    "posture": "Defensive stagflation: preserve optionality while bonds and equities can both struggle.",
    "favored": "Cash, T-bills, short duration, optionality."
  },
  "quadrants": [
    {
      "name": "Deflationary Boom",
      "inflationSignal": "Gold/Treasuries below 7-year MA",
      "growthSignal": "S&P/Oil above 7-year MA",
      "posture": "Risk-on: equities and efficiency assets lead; bonds can also work.",
      "favored": "Equities, productivity, quality growth, some duration.",
      "isActive": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Inflationary Boom",
      "inflationSignal": "Gold/Treasuries above 7-year MA",
      "growthSignal": "S&P/Oil above 7-year MA",
      "posture": "Risk-on with inflation protection: scarcity assets lead.",
      "favored": "Gold, energy, commodities, resource equities, real assets.",
      "isActive": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Inflationary Bust",
      "inflationSignal": "Gold/Treasuries above 7-year MA",
      "growthSignal": "S&P/Oil below 7-year MA",
      "posture": "Defensive stagflation: preserve optionality while bonds and equities can both struggle.",
      "favored": "Cash, T-bills, short duration, optionality.",
      "isActive": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Deflationary Bust",
      "inflationSignal": "Gold/Treasuries below 7-year MA",
      "growthSignal": "S&P/Oil below 7-year MA",
      "posture": "Risk-off recession/deflation: duration becomes the classic hedge.",
      "favored": "Long high-quality government bonds, intermediate duration, cash.",
      "isActive": false
    }
  ],
  "portfolioSleeves": [
    {
      "sleeve": "Equities",
      "role": "Deflationary Boom / productivity growth"
    },
    {
      "sleeve": "Gold",
      "role": "Inflationary Boom / monetary distrust"
    },
    {
      "sleeve": "Cash / T-bills",
      "role": "Inflationary Bust / optionality and high short rates"
    },
    {
      "sleeve": "Long Treasuries",
      "role": "Deflationary Bust / falling rates and recession hedge"
    }
  ],
  "implementationNotes": [
    "Use month-end data and an 84-month moving average to avoid daily whipsaw.",
    "Use GLD/IEF as the quick ETF version of Gold / 10Y Treasuries.",
    "Use SPY or S&P 500 total return divided by WTI spot for the boom/bust axis.",
    "This framework is a regime lens, not an automatic trading mandate."
  ]
}