{
  "status": "exploratory retrospective research, not production",
  "cutoff": "2026-09-30",
  "sampleStart": "2014-01-31",
  "originalCalibration": ["2018-01-31", "2026-04-30"],
  "recoveredCommit": "e1c1d45c594bcbdbb0eb8b215ec2e0801411d321",
  "commitDate": "2026-05-02",
  "recoveredVariants": [
    "Log BTC returns on contemporaneous log SPY return, 3-month G3 change and SPY/liquidity interaction, with intercept; later mean/volatility matching. Notes report R-squared about 0.17.",
    "No-intercept monthly return model with SPY and G3 changes; original diagnostic reports 27.9% proxy volatility versus 67.6% actual BTC.",
    "May 28 notes specify no-intercept SPY monthly return plus 3-month G3 log change, with coefficients about 1.5094 and 0.5035. Original temporary script is unavailable."
  ],
  "liquidityUnits": "All balances in USD millions: WALCL - 1000*RRPONTSYD - WTREGEN + ECBASSETSW*DEXUSEU + JPNASSETS*100/DEXJPUS",
  "releaseLagAssumptions": "7 calendar days for weekly/daily series; BOJ monthly end-of-period observation moved to month-end plus 14 days. These are assumed delays on revised data, not recovered original release vintages.",
  "descriptiveAnalysis": "Reconstruct documented contemporaneous regressions; separate explanatory fit from forecast skill; retain unexplained variance.",
  "forecastHorizonsMonths": [12, 36],
  "forecastTargets": "Subsequent annualized BTC log return; evaluate only completed horizons.",
  "forecastModels": [
    "Fixed 20% compound return prior",
    "Zero return",
    "Expanding historical mean log return since 2014",
    "Ridge forecast from trailing 12-month BTC and SPY returns",
    "Same ridge forecast plus release-lagged 3-month G3 growth",
    "20% prior minus log price deviation from a trailing 60-month regression of log BTC on log SPY and log G3, divided by forecast horizon"
  ],
  "forecastFit": "At each month-end, use only predictor rows with fully matured target horizons. Minimum 36 monthly labels; ridge penalty 6 on training-standardized slopes, unpenalized intercept. No tuning or clipping. Valuation-level regression excludes the current observation.",
  "sensitivity": "84-month instead of 60-month valuation window; results descriptive, not selected for better performance.",
  "metrics": "RMSE and MAE of annualized log returns; common-date comparisons; squared-error improvement against fixed 20% with moving-block bootstrap of 12 or 36 months. Monthly overlapping forecasts are not independent observations.",
  "restrictions": "No synthetic pre-BTC observations are used as training targets or evidence of additional BTC history. No return forecast is promoted to production. No household financial data is used."
}