Tax-deferred portfolio

KISS portfolio

Market nowcast: Inflation

Designed for retirement and other tax-deferred accounts where the portfolio can respond quickly to changing risk. The maximum allocation is 60% stocks, 30% gold, and 10% Bitcoin. Unused exposure moves to cash.

Latest refresh

Oct 9, 2026, 5:45 PM CDT

View source data

Confirmed portfolio allocation

The confirmed model weights and each sleeve's current share of maximum exposure.

Gross Exposure

Confirmed Allocation

30% Stocks (VT)

0% Gold (GLDM)

5% Bitcoin (FBTC)

65% Cash (SPAXX)

Percentage of Maximum Exposure

50%

Stocks

Gold

50%

Bitcoin

65.0%

Cash

Personalize the preview

Set your maximum allocation

Choose the most you would allocate to each asset. The current portfolio signals below will scale to your maximums, with any unused allocation held in cash.

Stocks 60% Gold 30% Bitcoin 10%

Maximums can total up to 100%. Lower one asset before raising another when fully allocated. Your settings are saved only in this browser.

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Live top-down reading

Market nowcast

The nowcast is today's market reading. Portfolio changes become actionable only after the required consecutive closes.

Supporting data →

Market nowcast

Inflation

Risk-off evidence leads 59% to 41%. Inflation is the confirmed regime.

Winner margin: 14.6
Data coverage: 100%
Confidence: High

Risk on

Goldilocks

20.8

Score

Reflation

33.3

Score

Risk off

Inflation

47.9

Current

Deflation

29.2

Score

Current and proposed allocations

Stocks

Current allocation 30% Bullish VAMS · Inflation Confirmed Sep 24

Proposed allocation 30% Bullish VAMS · Inflation No change proposed.

Supporting calculations

Latest inputs for the proposed allocation.

z-score input

-0.11Neutral

Trend-vote input

5/5Bullish

Price > 50dma

159.83 vs 159.67

Bullish

Price > 200dma

159.83 vs 150.98

Bullish

50dma > 200dma

159.67 vs 150.98

Bullish

3m return > 0

2.8%

Bullish

50dma rising

159.67 vs 158.69 10d ago

Bullish

Signal rule and confirmation

Bullish: trend confirmation

Price is above the 200dma, 3m return is positive, and at least 4 of 5 trend votes are bullish.

The conditions below would change the raw signal. Confirmation still applies. Raw Neutral means neither the Bullish nor Bearish rule is met.

Raw signal → Bearish

Bearish trend breakdown

Price falls below the 200dma (159.83 vs 150.98; cushion about 5.5%); 3m return turns negative (2.8%); Price falls below the 50dma (159.83 vs 159.67; cushion about 0.1%). Would trigger Bearish trend breakdown.

Gold

GLDM

Current allocation 0% Bearish VAMS · Reflation Confirmed Sep 17

Proposed allocation 0% Bearish VAMS · Inflation No change proposed.

Supporting calculations

Latest inputs for the proposed allocation.

z-score input

-1.61Bearish

Trend-vote input

2/5Bearish

Price > 50dma

393.13 vs 405.73

Bearish

Price > 200dma

393.13 vs 424.37

Bearish

50dma > 200dma

405.73 vs 424.37

Bearish

3m return > 0

4.8%

Bullish

50dma rising

405.73 vs 404.04 10d ago

Bullish

Signal rule and confirmation

Bearish: z-score + weak trend breadth

z < -0.25 and 2 or fewer of 5 trend votes are bullish.

The conditions below would change the raw signal. Confirmation still applies. Raw Neutral means neither the Bullish nor Bearish rule is met.

Raw signal → Bullish

Bullish trend confirmation

Price moves above the 200dma (393.13 vs 424.37; needs about 7.9%); Price moves above the 50dma (393.13 vs 405.73; needs about 3.2%). Would trigger Bullish trend confirmation.

Bitcoin

FBTC/BTC

Current allocation 5% Bullish VAMS · Inflation Confirmed Sep 16

Proposed allocation 5% Bullish VAMS · Inflation No change proposed.

Supporting calculations

Latest inputs for the proposed allocation.

z-score input

0.85Bullish

Trend-vote input

5/5Bullish

Price > 50dma

82,567.67 vs 80,718.97

Bullish

Price > 200dma

82,567.67 vs 71,856.40

Bullish

50dma > 200dma

80,718.97 vs 71,856.40

Bullish

3m return > 0

27.3%

Bullish

50dma rising

80,718.97 vs 76,871.95 10d ago

Bullish

Signal rule and confirmation

Bullish: z-score and trend confirmation

z > +0.25 with at least 3 trend votes, and price > 200dma with positive 3m return and at least 4 trend votes.

The conditions below would change the raw signal. Confirmation still applies. Raw Neutral means neither the Bullish nor Bearish rule is met.

Raw signal → Bearish

Bearish trend breakdown

Price falls below the 200dma (82,567.67 vs 71,856.40; cushion about 13.0%); 3m return turns negative (27.3%); Price falls below the 50dma (82,567.67 vs 80,718.97; cushion about 2.2%). Would trigger Bearish trend breakdown.

How VAMS is calculated

Raw momentum score = weighted 1m / 3m / 6m / 12m log returns divided by 63-day annualized realized volatility. Weights are 20%, 35%, 30%, and 15%.
z-score compares today’s raw momentum score to roughly the prior three years of raw scores. z > +0.25 is bullish pressure; z < -0.25 is bearish pressure; the middle zone is neutral.
The five trend votes are price > 50dma, price > 200dma, 50dma > 200dma, 3m return > 0, and 50dma rising versus 10 trading days ago.
Bullish triggers when z > +0.25 with at least 3 trend votes, or when price is above the 200dma, 3m return is positive, and at least 4 trend votes are bullish.
Bearish triggers when z < -0.25 with 2 or fewer trend votes, or when price is below the 200dma, 3m return is negative, and 2 or fewer trend votes are bullish. If neither side triggers, the asset remains Neutral.
VAMS state changes require two consecutive closes in the new state before the model confirms the change. The confirmed VAMS multiplier sets a signal target; allocation confirmation is a separate step. The same close can advance both steps.
RSI 14 is display-only. It does not affect the VAMS state, multiplier, or allocation.

More VAMS

Historical context

Portfolio performance and signal history

These simulations and daily records are useful for evaluating the process, but they come after today's allocation and decision inputs.

Portfolio Performance

Current-methodology model simulation using adjusted total returns, next-session execution, the declared cash proxy, and implementation costs. The period before 2025-01-02 is a retrospective reconstruction, not a record of signals published live. All results are simulated—not audited live—performance, and taxes are excluded.

Trading Days

1,701

2020-01-02 → 2026-10-09
148 KISS target changes

KISS ending value

$248,633

CAGR 14.4%; max drawdown -8.8%.

60/30/10 annual rebalance ending value

$345,699

CAGR 20.1%; max drawdown -29.2%.

Sample Sortino comparison

1.4x

Model-simulation Sortino divided by 60/30/10 annual rebalance Sortino. Treat cautiously until the common sample spans more regimes.

Current-methodology KISS simulation60/30/10 annual rebalance60% Stocks (VT) / 40% Bonds (AGG) annual rebalance

Portfolio	Ending value	Total return	CAGR	Sortino ratio	Max drawdown	Volatility
Current-methodology KISS simulation	$248,633	148.6%	14.4%	2.21	-8.8%	9.3%
60/30/10 annual rebalance	$345,699	245.7%	20.1%	1.63	-29.2%	17.3%
60% Stocks (VT) / 40% Bonds (AGG) annual rebalance	$165,739	65.7%	7.8%	0.89	-22.3%	12.0%

KISS rule: Current-methodology model simulation starts on the first available trading day on or after 2020-01-01 at 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin. Signals before 2025-01-02 are retrospective reconstructions; later rows align with the archived-record period but are recalculated under the current methodology. Confirmation is tracked independently by sleeve: a lower sleeve target requires 2 confirming closes and a higher sleeve target requires 5. Confirmed sleeve changes execute next session with declared costs and the 3-month T-bill cash proxy.

Matching-allocation benchmark: Benchmark starts with the same 60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin portfolio and is fully rebalanced on the first trading day of each calendar year.

60/40 comparison: 60/40 comparison starts on the same date with 60% VT and 40% AGG, uses adjusted total returns, and is fully rebalanced on the first trading day of each calendar year.

Sortino Ratio: return per unit of downside volatility. On this page, it is calculated as CAGR divided by annualized downside deviation of daily returns below 0%; higher is better.

Macro Regime Scores

Raw weighted scores for the four macro regimes

2026-07-142026-10-09

Reflation: Current 33.3Goldilocks: Current 20.8Inflation: Current 47.9Deflation: Current 29.2 Regime-change rebalance

Risk On vs Risk Off

Share of the total regime score

2026-07-142026-10-09

Risk On: Current 41.3%Risk Off: Current 58.7% Regime-change rebalance

Daily signal history

Newest first. Percentage columns show each sleeve's raw signal target as a share of its maximum exposure. The confirmed allocation above applies the separate two-close reduction and five-close increase rules.

Methodology and changes →

Date	Bias	Regime	Stocks % max	Gold % max	Bitcoin % max
2026-10-09	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-10-08	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-10-07	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-10-06	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-10-05	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-10-02	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-10-01	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-09-30	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-09-29	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-09-28	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-09-25	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-09-24	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	0%	50%
2026-09-23	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	25%	50%
2026-09-22	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-21	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-18	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-17	Risk-on	Reflation	50%	0%	100%
2026-09-16	Mixed	Mixed	25%	0%	50%
2026-09-15	Risk-off	Inflation	50%	25%	50%
2026-09-14	Mixed	Mixed	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-11	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-10	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-09	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-08	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	50%	100%
2026-09-04	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	0%	100%
2026-09-03	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	0%	100%
2026-09-02	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	0%	100%
2026-09-01	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	0%	100%
2026-08-31	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	0%	100%
2026-08-28	Risk-on	Reflation	100%	100%	100%

Showing the latest 30 of 1702 daily rows.