Market regime
ReflationRisk-on
Reflation is the highest-confirmation market regime (10 of 23 weighted confirmations).
Public-data 42 Macro approximation
KISS Portfolio Dashboard
Reflation · Risk-onDaily top-down market regime plus bottom-up volatility-adjusted momentum for the 60/30/10 KISS portfolio: stocks, gold, bitcoin, and SPAXX cash residual.
Public market and macro data are transformed into a top-down regime, asset-level trend state, and allocation snapshot.
Snapshot
GeneratedMay 8, 2026, 10:59 AM CDT
Sourcestatus.json
Risk-on share
83%
Risk-off share: 17%. Winner margin: 1 confirmations.
Bottom-up GRID
ReflationGRID
Growth diffusion 60%; inflation diffusion 80%.
Liquidity
Neutral-1.9% 4w
US net-liquidity proxy is neutral (-1.9% 4w, 2.4% 13w).
Current KISS Allocation
Actual KISS weights plus percentage of maximum exposure. Unused exposure goes to SPAXX.
Gross Exposure
Percentage of Maximum Exposure
Stocks
Bullish VT
Weight 60.0%
% max exposure
100%Top-down target
60.0%Bullish: z=0.21, price above 200dma, 3m return 5.8%.
Gold
Bearish GLDM
Weight 0.0%
% max exposure
0%Top-down target
30.0%Bearish: z=-1.02, price above 200dma, 3m return -5.0%.
Bitcoin
Neutral FBTC/BTC
Weight 5.0%
% max exposure
50%Top-down target
10.0%Neutral: z=-0.52, price below 200dma, 3m return 17.5%.
Cash
n/a SPAXX
Weight 35.0%
% max exposure
35%Top-down target
residualResidual from top-down and VAMS risk controls goes to SPAXX; cash can reach 100% when all risk assets are bearish.
How To Use This
Start with the 60/30/10 KISS base portfolio, then let the top-down regime and bottom-up trend overlays decide how much of each sleeve to actually hold.
1. Base portfolio
60% stocks / 30% gold / 10% bitcoin
The strategic KISS mix is 60% global equities, 30% gold, and 10% bitcoin. Those weights are the maximum risk-asset exposures for the model. Any unused exposure is parked in SPAXX cash.
2. Top-down overlay
Market regime sets the target
The top-down regime map reads growth and inflation momentum from public macro and market proxies. Risk-on regimes can allow full exposure, while risk-off regimes cut the sleeves that are most vulnerable and shift the difference to cash.
3. Bottom-up overlay
VAMS confirms each asset
Each sleeve also gets a bottom-up volatility-adjusted momentum signal. Bullish assets can receive 100% of their top-down target, neutral assets get partial exposure, and bearish assets are reduced or removed.
4. Custom base allocation
Scale by % max exposure
If your personal base allocation is different, use the “% max exposure” column as the multiplier. For example, if your base stock target is 40% and stocks show 50% max exposure, your current stock weight would be 20%.
Market Regime Map
The KISS top-down regime is a 2x2 map of growth and inflation momentum. Top row is rising inflation; right column is improving growth.
← Inflation falling / Inflation rising →
Growth slowing ← / Growth improving →
Inflation
4 confirmations
Performs well: Gold, commodities, cash/T-bills, and short-duration defenses tend to hold up best. Equities usually need selectivity because margins and multiples are under pressure.
Growth: Growth falling / slowing
Inflation: Inflation rising
Reflation
10 confirmations
Performs well: Cyclicals, broad equities, bitcoin, commodities, and real-asset exposure tend to perform well as growth and nominal demand accelerate together.
Growth: Growth rising / improving
Inflation: Inflation rising
Deflation
0 confirmations
Performs well: Cash/T-bills and high-quality duration are the classic safe havens. Risk assets usually struggle; gold can help when policy/liquidity stress rises.
Growth: Growth falling / slowing
Inflation: Inflation falling
Goldilocks
9 confirmations
Performs well: Broad equities, bitcoin, credit, quality growth, and lower-volatility risk assets tend to do well because growth is improving while inflation pressure eases.
Growth: Growth rising / improving
Inflation: Inflation falling
VAMS Signals
Bottom-up asset momentum determines whether each target receives 100%, 50%, or 0% exposure.
Stocks
VT
Bullish
3m return
5.8%RSI 14
63.0Vol 63d
17.4%Bullish: z=0.21, price above 200dma, 3m return 5.8%.
Gold
GLDM
Bearish
3m return
-5.0%RSI 14
43.2Vol 63d
30.6%Bearish: z=-1.02, price above 200dma, 3m return -5.0%.
Bitcoin
FBTC/BTC
Neutral
3m return
17.5%RSI 14
61.5Vol 63d
31.1%Neutral: z=-0.52, price below 200dma, 3m return 17.5%.
Regime Scores
Goldilocks
9
Score Reflation
10
Current Inflation
4
Score Deflation
0
Score What Is Confirming the Regime?
Cross-asset confirmations behind the top-down market regime.
Global stocks (VT)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
High beta / low vol (SPHB/SPLV)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Cyclicals / defensives
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Small caps / stocks (IWM/SPY)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
High yield / Treasurys (HYG/IEF)
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Bitcoin
Neutral→ No strong confirmation
Commodities (DBC)
Bullish→ Reflation / Inflation
US Dollar (UUP)
Bearish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Equity volatility (^VIX)
Bearish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Gold
Bearish→ Inflation
10y Treasury yield trend
Bullish→ Reflation / Inflation
Credit spreads
Bullish→ Goldilocks / Reflation
Yield curve
Bearish→ Goldilocks / Inflation
Macro Outlook
Bottom-up macro data currently maps to Reflation: growth improving and inflation rising.
Growth features
Real GDP YoY 2.0% → 2.7% Rising
Industrial production YoY 1.3% → 0.7% Falling
Payrolls YoY 0.2% → 0.2% Falling
Unemployment rate YoY (inverse) 7.5% → 2.4% Rising
Initial claims YoY (inverse) 8.5% → -16.3% Rising
Inflation features
Headline CPI YoY 2.7% → 3.3% Rising
Core CPI YoY 2.6% → 2.6% Falling
Core PCE YoY 3.0% → 3.2% Rising
PPI YoY 3.1% → 6.0% Rising
10y breakeven inflation YoY -3.3% → 8.9% Rising
Methodology
Public-data approximation of the KISS process.
- Global Macro Risk Matrix approximation: cross-asset confirmations map market behavior to Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation, or Deflation.
- VAMS approximation: volatility-adjusted momentum, trend, RSI, and moving-average confirmation map each asset to Bullish/Neutral/Bearish.
- Unused exposure is allocated to SPAXX money market.
- Signals are calculated daily and changes are lagged one trading day in backtests/research design.
Net-liquidity proxy
Latest value 5,831,742 on 2026-05-06. Change: -1.9% over 4 weeks and +2.4% over 13 weeks.
Daily Signal History
Newest first. Percent columns show actual exposure as a share of each sleeve's maximum KISS exposure.
| Date | Bias | Regime | Stocks % Max | Gold % Max | Bitcoin % Max | Confirmations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 10 Reflation9 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-07 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 10 Reflation9 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-06 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 9 Reflation8 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-05 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 9 Reflation8 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-04 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-05-01 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-30 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-29 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-28 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-27 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-24 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-23 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-22 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-21 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 0% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-20 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks4 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-17 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks3 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-16 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8 Reflation7 Goldilocks3 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-15 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks3 Inflation0 Deflation |
| 2026-04-14 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7 Reflation6 Goldilocks4 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-13 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation2 Deflation |
| 2026-04-10 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks5 Inflation2 Deflation |
| 2026-04-09 | Risk-on | Reflation | 100% | 50% | 50% | 6 Reflation5 Goldilocks4 Inflation1 Deflation |
| 2026-04-08 | Risk-off | Inflation | 50% | 25% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks6 Inflation4 Deflation |
| 2026-04-07 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 3 Reflation3 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-04-06 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 3 Reflation3 Goldilocks8 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-04-02 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 4 Reflation3 Goldilocks9 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-04-01 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 4 Reflation3 Goldilocks9 Inflation6 Deflation |
| 2026-03-31 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 3 Reflation4 Goldilocks8 Inflation7 Deflation |
| 2026-03-30 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 25% | 0% | 3 Reflation2 Goldilocks11 Inflation8 Deflation |
| 2026-03-27 | Risk-off | Inflation | 0% | 50% | 0% | 4 Reflation4 Goldilocks10 Inflation8 Deflation |