Based on Michael Howell's Liquidity Framework, this public-data proxy combines a fast nowcast of funding and market stress with a slower liquidity-cycle regime that smooths noisy transitions.
The smoothed cycle regime remains in a stable calm phase with no persistent transition signal yet.
Trigger: Desired Calm because liquidity is still broadly supportive and the warning cluster is not persistent enough to keep the cycle in a late-stage regime.
FRED WALCL - RRPONTSYD - WTREGEN
Treasury volatility is relatively contained.
20d change -1.8; 75th pct 100.4; 90th pct 112.0.
Credit spreads are relatively calm.
20d change -0.11 pts; 75th pct 3.56; 90th pct 4.05.
Funding spread looks normal.
Current -0.050%; 60d avg -0.000%; deviation -4.9 bps.
Broader financial conditions remain calm.
8w change -0.24; 75th pct 0.25; 90th pct 0.80.
Equity trend remains supportive.
vs 200d avg 8.7%; 20d change 7.5%.
| Date | SPY | Total | Nowcast | Cycle | 13w liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 7,230.12 | 0 | Calm | Calm | 0.9% |
| 2026-04-24 | 7,165.08 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | -0.2% |
| 2026-04-17 | 7,126.06 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | 2.6% |
| 2026-04-10 | 6,816.89 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | 2.9% |
| 2026-04-03 | 6,582.69 | 4 | Speculation | Speculation | 0.4% |
| 2026-03-27 | 6,368.85 | 6 | Speculation | Speculation | 0.7% |
| 2026-03-20 | 6,506.48 | 5 | Speculation | Speculation | 1.4% |
| 2026-03-13 | 6,632.19 | 5 | Speculation | Speculation | 2.2% |
| 2026-03-06 | 6,740.02 | 4 | Speculation | Speculation | 3.5% |
| 2026-02-27 | 6,878.88 | 2 | Speculation | Speculation | 1.4% |
| 2026-02-20 | 6,909.51 | 1 | Rebound | Speculation | 1.6% |
| 2026-02-13 | 6,836.17 | 3 | Speculation | Calm | 1.4% |
| 2026-02-06 | 6,932.3 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 1.2% |
| 2026-01-30 | 6,939.03 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.6% |
| 2026-01-23 | 6,915.61 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.6% |
| 2026-01-16 | 6,940.01 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.3% |
| 2026-01-09 | 6,966.28 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | -0.1% |
| 2026-01-02 | 6,858.47 | 0 | Rebound | Calm | 0.4% |
| 2025-12-26 | 6,929.94 | 0 | Calm | Calm | -1.0% |
| 2025-12-19 | 6,834.5 | 1 | Calm | Speculation | -2.2% |
| 2025-12-12 | 6,827.41 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | -4.3% |
| 2025-12-05 | 6,870.4 | 0 | Calm | Speculation | -6.8% |
| 2025-11-28 | 6,849.09 | 2 | Speculation | Speculation | -6.1% |
| 2025-11-21 | 6,602.99 | 4 | Speculation | Speculation | -8.0% |